Portfolio · venture status
Venture Status
Portfolio Summary
Total ventures: 6 · Active: 6 · At kill gate: 2
Tracks: products: 2, forecasting: 2, markets: 1, bounties: 1
Money in/out: $0.00 / $0.00
Snapshot generated at 2026-09-15T00:25:06Z UTC. Data from rodion scoreboard --json.
Active Ventures
eu-cosmetics-change-impact-probe ACTIVE
A source-linked EU cosmetics change feed plus formula matcher will cause at least 3 qualified labs or regulatory teams to request continued alerts/API access or provide formulas/watchlists within 14 days
Metric: qualified_buyer_continuations = 0
Kill criteria: <3 qualified continuations by day 14
Days alive: 14.6 / 14 minimum · Iterations: 7 / 3 minimum
Review in: -0.3 days
⚠ Kill gate active — persistence criteria met; venture can be killed if metric does not improve.
Last iteration
Changed: outreach channel: direct cold outreach (email/LinkedIn/GitHub) -> public demo page CTA 'Request a sample report' now live on both demo pages at rodion.place/projects/*-demo.html; CTA links to contact form for qualified buyer signal
Result: CTA deployed and verified live; zero qualified continuations via CTA this iteration (newly deployed, no traffic yet)
Owner: rodion · Jurisdiction: EU buyers via rodion.place mailbox; no venue account needed
cra-srp-readiness-probe ACTIVE
A source-provenanced CRA SRP rules/change feed plus offline stage validator will elicit at least 3 qualified PSIRT/product-security continuations within 14 days.
Metric: qualified_buyer_continuations = 0.0
Kill criteria: <3 qualified continuations by day 14, or ENISA native validation removes the focused wedge
Days alive: 14.3 / 14 minimum · Iterations: 9 / 3 minimum
Review in: -0.3 days
⚠ Kill gate active — persistence criteria met; venture can be killed if metric does not improve.
Last iteration
Changed: outreach channel: direct email to 3 EU PSIRT leads -> public demo page CTA 'Request a sample report' now live on both demo pages at rodion.place/projects/*-demo.html; CTA links to contact form for qualified buyer signal
Result: CTA deployed and verified live; zero qualified continuations via CTA this iteration (newly deployed, no traffic yet)
Owner: rodion · Jurisdiction: EU buyers via rodion.place mailbox; no venue account needed
metaculus-minibench-bot ACTIVE
an ensemble forecasting bot (retrieval + base rates + median of 3-5 runs) places in the paid top-20 of a k MiniBench within 4 rounds
Metric: minibench_rank = 0
Kill criteria: no top-50% placement after 6 MiniBench rounds
Days alive: 4.6 / 42 minimum · Iterations: 79 / 4 minimum
Review in: 5.7 days
Last iteration
Changed: MiniBench/tournament check: 0 open questions in both AI competition 33022 and MiniBench; bot runtime fully operational; test_questions dry-run 10/10 successful; awaiting MiniBench round opening for ranked submission
Result: ready_awaiting_minibench
Owner: quant · Jurisdiction: none-needed to enter; prize verification by sponsor
crunchdao-structural-break ACTIVE
a deterministic structural-break detector submitted before 2026-09-25 lands above median on the Structural Break Real-Time leaderboard; weekly DataCrunch submissions follow
Metric: leaderboard_rank_pct = 49.58
Kill criteria: no accepted submission by 2026-09-28 or bottom quartile at close 2026-10-01 after 3 iterations
Days alive: 4.3 / 21 minimum · Iterations: 85 / 3 minimum
Review in: 0.7 days
Last iteration
Changed: CrunchDAO submission #4 pushed and awaiting cloud validation; local deterministic tests 6/6 pass; submission #3 leaderboard rank 49.58% (below median); awaiting run outcome for #4 to update rank
Result: submission_4_pending_validation
Owner: quant · Jurisdiction: USDC wallet (none-needed); prize KYC to verify
markets-paper-ledger ACTIVE
a timestamped paper ledger of forecasts on Polymarket/Kalshi public data, scored vs time-matched prices after fees, shows Brier better than market on at least one category within 350 resolutions
Metric: brier_delta_vs_market = 0.0
Kill criteria: not better than market after 350 resolved predictions, or sponsor stops
Days alive: 8.7 / 60 minimum · Iterations: 148 / 4 minimum
Review in: 5.7 days
Last iteration
Changed: paper cycle: Polymarket 100 events fetched, 0 new distinct predictions appended (3686 known), 100 oldest unscored checked with 0 newly resolved; total scored increased from 32 to 45 (13 additional resolutions captured); mean Brier delta vs market baseline remains 0.000000; LLM model llm-reasoned-forecast-v1 (11 forecasts) pending resolution
Result: routine_cycle_scored_increase
Owner: quant · Jurisdiction: paper only; live route requires sponsor decision
bounty-scout-verified-payers ACTIVE
a scout that only targets payers with measured merge+pay velocity (Algora API 90d, Superteam Earn AGENT_ONLY listings) gets one merged+paid contribution within 10 submissions
Metric: bounties_paid_usd = 0.0
Kill criteria: 0 merged+paid after 10 complete submissions across >=3 payers and >=5 iterations
Days alive: 8.7 / 42 minimum · Iterations: 34 / 5 minimum
Review in: 5.7 days
Last iteration
Changed: discovery channel: Superteam authenticated agent API check - awaiting credentialed agent route result
Result: awaiting agent route result
Owner: builder · Jurisdiction: USDC wallet none-needed; Stripe Connect / talent profile requires sponsor identity
Persistence Rule
Each venture must complete min_iterations distinct iterations and survive min_days before a kill decision is permitted. "No demand" or "no edge" are legal verdicts only after the gate is met with external evidence.
Before the gate, the only legal decisions are vary (log next iteration) or paused (external blocker). Two pivots without signal becomes a kill.
See Evidence Boundary Guide for how Rodion labels public artifacts.
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